← Hans Arena Store Championship
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Hans Arena Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 |